International early shuttle
On February 15, the three major US stock indexes rose to a new high on the fifth day. European stocks rose for 7 days. Gold rebounded and crude oil fell. Trump said that the tax cuts were largely deregulated, the US economic data was strong, and Yellen reiterated the hawkish testimony.
Today, we will pay attention to the minutes of the European Central Bank's January monetary policy meeting and the US unemployment benefit application data.
Market context
[ RMB ] The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 174 basis points to 6.8632. The increase was the largest in three weeks. Both the offshore and the spot exchange rates of the offshore RMB stabilized, and the spread between the two places remained low.
US Dollar against Renminbi
Offshore renminbi rose 150 points or 0.23% in late New York, and 6.8451 yuan at 06:00 Beijing time, which recorded a second consecutive trading day.
On the 15th, the official closing price of RMB 15:30 on the 15th was 6.8672, which was 2 points higher than the official closing price of the previous trading day. It fell 12 points from the previous trading day. The daily turnover was 15.842 billion US dollars.
[The foreign exchange market ] The US dollar held steady. After the US dollar hit a one-month high against a basket of currencies, investors locked in profits. The newly announced retail sales and consumer prices rose sharply, stimulating the dollar to rise in early trading.
Dollar to yen time chart
The US dollar index was unchanged at 101.21, and the intraday high was seen at 101.76, the highest since January 12. The euro rebounded from a one-month low against the dollar, rising 0.1% in late trading to $1.0583. The dollar was near the two-week high against the yen, ending at 114.33 yen.
[ Oil City ] Oil prices fell slightly in shocks, as US crude oil and gasoline inventories hit record highs, fueling concerns about global oversupply.
US WTI crude oil time-sharing chart
Brent crude oil futures closed down $0.22, or 0.4%, to $55.75 a barrel. US crude oil futures fell slightly by $0.09, or 0.2%, to close at $53.11 a barrel.
[ Golden market ] Gold prices rebounded from the dollar's decline from the high level, getting rid of the pressure from earlier US inflation and retail sales data better than expected. The data enhanced the expectation of the US interest rate hike recently.
Gold futures price time-sharing chart
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1231.06 per ounce. US April gold futures closed up 0.6% at $1233.10. Spot silver fell 0.05% to $17.94, while platinum fell 0.2% to $1002.05.
[ Stock market ] US stocks closed higher, hitting record highs again in the session, the financial sector continued to lead for three consecutive days, helped by a wave of strong economic data, and President Trump’s optimistic expectations of cutting corporate taxes continued to ferment. European stock markets closed higher on the seventh day and were once again driven by corporate quarterly reports.
S&P 500 index average index time-sharing chart
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 107.45 points, or 0.52%, to 20,611.86 points; the S&P 500 index rose 11.67 points, or 0.50%, to 2,349.25 points; the Nasdaq index rose 36.868 points, or 0.64%, to 5,819.44 points.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.3%, the British stock FTSE 100 index closed up 0.47%, the German stock DAX index closed 0.19% higher, and the French stock CA C-40 index closed up 0.59%.
Trading clue
[ RMB ] Zhou Hao, a senior emerging market economist at the German Commercial Bank in Singapore, said in an interview that if he had a knife on the neck of a trader and asked them to make short-term trading in the yuan, he might choose to do more.
[The foreign exchange market ] "The market has some hesitation due to the timing of interest rate hikes," said SeBA stien Galy, FX strategist at Deutsche Bank in New York.
[ Oil City ] "US crude oil inventories rose more than expected for the second consecutive week, but the increase was less than the previous week, which helped oil prices recover some of the earlier losses," said Abhishek Kumar, senior energy analyst at Global Gas Analytics, a subsidiary of Interfax Energy.
[ Golden Market ] "All the news about interest rates, the market basically ignored, I think the market can easily absorb the expectation of raising interest rates by 25 basis points," said Bill O'Neill, co-founder of LOGICAdvisors.
[ Stock Market ] Brad McMillan, chief investment officer of Commonwealth Financial Network, said, "But now, if the Fed raises interest rates, it will not cause an uproar in the market because people have enough confidence in fundamentals."
Data and speech
[EIA: US oil stocks refreshed high] The US EIA crude oil inventories on February 10 was +952.7 million barrels, a record high of 51.12 million barrels, expected to be +35 million barrels, and the previous value was +138.00 million barrels.
[US CPI super strong in January] US CPI in January was 0.6%, the largest increase since February 2013, expected 0.3%, the previous value of 0.3%.
[U.S. industrial output fell by the ring] The US industrial output in January was -0.3%, expected to be 0.0%, and the previous value of 0.8% was revised to 0.6%.
[The number of UK jobless claims exceeded expectations] The number of UK jobless claims in January was -42,400, expected to be +0.05 million, and the previous value was revised from -10,100 to -2.05 million.
[Yelen hawks: interest rate hikes are still suitable during the year] Yellen reiterated in the House hearing: the United States added 16 million jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. It is appropriate to raise interest rates more than once in 2017.
Financial news
[In December, China increased its holdings of US debt for the first time in seven months, but the annual decline was a record.] In December last year, overseas investors sold US debt for the ninth consecutive month. The size of China’s debt holdings increased for the first time in seven months. It was the lowest valley in the past six months and a half, but the annual reduction in the scale reached the highest in the year.
[Le Pen support rate soared, CDS skyrocketed to a four-year high] French extreme right-wing presidential candidate Le Pen was finally elected to a record high today, the French election risk hedging products panic snapped up, France 5-year CDS prices fell to 4 The highest value of the year.
[Easy to respond to monetary policy for the first time in the year: the neutral situation is not tight] The vice president of the central bank, Yi Gang, said that the central bank will maintain a stable monetary policy overall. The stable monetary policy is a neutral situation, and neutral. The situation is not tight.
[The central parity of the RMB was raised by 174 points, the biggest increase in three weeks.] The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.8632, and the median price of the previous day was 6.8806. The official closing price of the previous day was 6.8674, and the night trading closed at 6.8660.
Financial calendar
1) 08:15 New York Fed President Dudley speaks in New York;
2) 08:30 Australia's adjusted unemployment rate in January;
3) 14:30 France's fourth quarter ILO unemployment rate;
4) 20:30 The European Central Bank announced the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting;
5) 21:30 US to February 11th, the number of jobless claims in the first week of the week, the US Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index in February;
6) 21:30 The total number of new housing starts in the United States in January and the total number of construction permits in the United States in January;
7) 23:30 US EIA natural gas inventory data for the week ending February 10
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