According to the statistics of the China Gold Association, China's gold consumption in the first half of 2014 reached 569.45 tons, down 19.38% year-on-year. Gold bars used 105.58 tons, down 62.13% year-on-year; gold coins and other gold used 10.95 tons, down 44.3% year-on-year.
Gold jewelry has been growing rapidly in the past few years. For example, from 2010 to 2013, the growth rate of gold and silver jewelry sales was 16%, and the highest was 46%.
Some insiders also believe that this is the second industry that has become cold after the implementation of the eight regulations by the central government after the negative growth of the high-end catering industry.
Liu Shanen, deputy director of the Beijing Gold Research Center, pointed out that there are multiple factors in the decline in sales of gold and silver jewelry. For example, it is related to the national policy to strengthen anti-corruption work and remove the abnormalization of gold consumption. At the same time, investment-oriented gold holders are waiting for a more appropriate time. The price of gold has basically not fallen this year and is floating up and down.
"Once gold has a low price in April last year, I believe there will still be snapping up," he said.
Cold gold and silver jewelry
According to the figures of the China Gold Association, China's gold consumption in the first quarter of 2014 reached 322.99 tons, an increase of 0.76%. However, the gold use of gold bars was only 67.95 tons, down 43.56% year-on-year. Gold jewelry used 232.53 tons of gold, an increase of 30.2%.
In the second quarter, the situation turned sharply.
In the first half of 2014, China's gold consumption reached 569.45 tons, compared with the same period last year, consumption decreased by 19.38%. Among them: gold jewelry gold 426.17 tons, an increase of 11.02%; industrial gold 26.75 tons, an increase of 11.32%. However, gold bars used 105.58 tons, down 62.13% year-on-year; gold coins and other gold used 10.95 tons, down 44.3% year-on-year.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the growth rate of gold, silver and jewelry consumption in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 was 46%, 42.1%, 16% and 25.8%, respectively, compared with 9.3% in January and February 2014. Since March of this year, the situation has undergone even greater changes. Gold, silver and jewellery consumption in March, April, May, June and July decreased by 6.1%, 30%, 12.1%, 0.2% and 11.7%.
Hong Kong Jewellery Group's Chow Tai Fook gold sales plummeted 56% in the first quarter, with mainland China sales down 24%, Hong Kong and Macau falling 43%, and same-store sales down 32%. Gold retail sales fell 32% in the second quarter of this year, while mainland China and Hong Kong fell 28%.
The World Gold Council (WGC) also said that the total demand for gold jewellery in the first quarter of 2014 fell by 18% year-on-year to US$23.73 billion.
The sales volume in the jewellery industry is very different. From the beginning of September to the end of the year, the proportion of married people is the peak season for jewelry sales. At present, it belongs to the off-season. There are many people entering the store but there are few successful transactions. For those who are not in a hurry, most of them are holding a wait-and-see attitude.
Li Cuixia, chief analyst of Golden Window, said that the most fundamental reason is that the introduction of quantitative easing policy in the United States led to a fall in the price of gold. After the dissolution of the Bryson system, gold was decoupled from the real economy. When the economy was good and the dollar strengthened, gold fell.
He further pointed out that the US quantitative easing policy has ended at the end of 2013, which means that the US will no longer release money, the US dollar will strengthen, and the price of gold will fall normally. "This is the most fundamental factor, because the price of gold has also risen in the past. so good".
Before the introduction of quantitative easing in the United States in 2008, the international gold price was at least $712.5 per ounce, averaging $871.57 per ounce. But then it has risen year after year. The average gold price in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 was 972.35, 1224.53, 1571.52, and 1166.57 US dollars/ounce. This means that from 2008 to 2013, the price of gold has risen by about one time.
In 2013, the highest price of gold still reached $1,169.75 per ounce, averaging $1,192.00 per ounce. However, on August 14, 2014, the international gold price was around $1,300 per ounce.
Jewelry consumption "gift demand" has shrunk
However, many people in the industry believe that the sales of gold and silver jewelry declined, and in addition to the high price, the anti-corruption also played a limiting role.
In 2013, the national catering revenue of enterprises above designated size was 818.1 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped sharply by 14.7 percentage points from 2012. For the first time since the statistics were published, the year-on-year decline.
Relatedly, in 2013, the retail sales of alcoholic products of key national large-scale retail enterprises fell by 9.2% year-on-year, down from 11.5 percentage points in the same period of the previous year, and the retail sales of nourishing foods increased by 10.3% year-on-year, down from 11% in the same period of last year.
The catering industry above designated size is mainly the middle and high-end catering industry related to official consumption. From January to July 2014, the catering revenue of units above designated size increased by 2.9%, which was lower than the growth rate of 10% of all catering industry revenue.
Jewelry that may be as unlucky as high-end dining. Xiong Zhi, manager of the planning department of Huaxia Pawnshop, said that anti-corruption did affect the business of jewelry.
For example, in the first half of this year, although the jewellery pawn in Huaxiadian was slightly increased compared with the same period of last year, it was down by about 10% compared with the second half of last year. This may be related to the fact that the price of jewelry in the past was too high and some products were outrageously high.
For example, in the past 2-3 years, Hetian jade and jadeite prices have risen a lot, such as a jade or jade, for example, in the past 10,000 yuan, rose to 20,000 yuan, so far the sales are not good, but did not see price cuts. "Now the price has not seen a big decline, it is natural for sales to be difficult to grow," he said.
In the future, as gold and silver jewellery removes the factors of corruption, it is not known whether sales will turn better. Shi Hongyue, deputy secretary general of the China Jewelry and Jade Jewelry Industry Association, said that the decline in sales of gold and silver jewelry was mainly related to past overdraft consumption.
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