In just over a month since March, the United States has issued 232 investigation reports and 301 investigation reports for China.

Tariffs are subject to industries such as steel and aluminum products, aerospace, information and communication technology, robotics and machinery.

The third question of the special program of the "Five Questions on Sino-US Economic and Trade Relations" of CCTV Financial Channel: Why did the United States repeatedly provoke trade disputes?

Abacus 1: In order to transfer domestic contradictions

CCTV Finance "CCTV Finance Review" column video

At present, there are many prominent contradictions in the United States, such as the need for economic boost, the growing social inequality, the differentiation of the values ​​of the underlying people and political “elite”, the increasing fiscal deficit of the US government, and the increasingly serious hollowing out of the industry. US President Trump has repeatedly speculated on "China's topic" during the campaign. When he imposed high tariffs on steel and aluminum in early March, he criticized why it was not directly targeted at China.

What Trump is doing now is to appease the criticism and complete his campaign promise. Secondly, in just over a year since Trump took office, the number of resignations in the White House staff has reached more than 20, and the number of resignations far exceeds that of any US president who has been in the past 40 years. Now it seems that this "whitening tide" of the White House is far from over, and it makes Trump squander.

Many people say that this trade friction is the Trump administration's preparation for the upcoming midterm elections in order to please the voters.

Von Paul Schilach, Research Fellow, Center for Global Policy Studies, USA: Why is it now? Why do you want to do this? Why do you want to fight a trade war? Because Trump and his political advisers are afraid of losing their votes, he is considering the midterm elections. He may even be preparing for re-election. He wants to consolidate his tough image because he is the president.

Liang Ming, Director of the Institute of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce: Why did the United States choose to provoke a trade dispute with China at this point in time, because it faced the mid-term election of the US Congress in November this year, which is very important for the Trump administration. Importantly, it is very important for the Republican Party to maintain control over the House and Senate, and it is also important to implement some economic policies in the next step. In addition, facing the presidential election in 2020 is even more important to him.

Abacus 2: Maintaining US Dollar Hegemony

The reason why the United States has to spend such tremendous power to maintain the hegemony of the dollar is because not only is the interest too much, but the price control can be used as a weapon to defeat the opponent.

First of all, if the economy is to develop, countries around the world will inevitably purchase resources in the international market. If they all need to pay for the purchase of dollars, then non-US houses must reserve US dollars. Second, where does the reserve dollar come from? Exports to the United States must have a surplus, so the US trade deficit is actually exporting dollar liquidity to the world. The United States made the credit currency into a settlement currency, made a reserve currency, made a direct transaction currency, earned the world’s money, earned the world’s physical goods, and “cut wool” once and for all, occupying the world. a great deal, and now the results actually got cheaper still called grievances.

In the panic of Sino-US trade friction or escalation, the US stock market plummeted again. In the early morning of Beijing time on the 7th, US stocks closed sharply on Friday. The Dow has fallen by nearly 770 points at most, and the major sectors have generally declined. The S&P 500 index suffered its biggest one-day drop since February 8.

Trump provoked trade frictions against China not only triggered market turmoil, but also provoked opposition in the United States. US Republic of Nebraska Republican Senator Ben Sass issued a statement saying that Trump’s new round of trade threats against China is "stupid."

Matthew Shea, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation of the United States, said in a statement that everyone warned of the danger of trade wars from the beginning, but the US government is still escalating trade frictions. This exacerbates the incident and ultimately the interests of ordinary American families will suffer.

Jacob Frenkel, chairman of JPMorgan Chase International, said in an interview with the media that in today's world, countries' economies are highly connected, and if Sino-US trade wars will be the biggest threat to the global economy. In 1931, the US trade protectionist measures were also based on the rescue of employment, but ultimately led to the disastrous consequences of the Great Depression. The United States should spare no effort to avoid repeating the same mistakes.

Khati Oulu, President of the US Business Environmental Risk Assessment Corporation: If you sacrifice the country’s economic interests and national peace for your personal benefit, when those industrial or agricultural employees are hurt because of your policies, talk about patriotism. It’s not good enough, and it’s not good to pull the United States to give priority to this banner.

Liang Ming, Director of the Institute of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce: Trump wants to maintain the hegemony of the US dollar. Recently, the internationalization of the RMB has been fast. The Chinese version of crude oil futures has also been introduced. He wants to maintain the hegemony of the US dollar, so he provokes A trade dispute with China.

Abacus III: Reduce the US-China trade deficit

According to Trump, in 2017, the US trade deficit with China was more than 370 billion US dollars. The Trump team kept saying that the trade deficit with China has damaged US interests and demanded that China reduce its trade deficit with the United States. .

In fact, China’s low prices and large quantities of physical goods have supported the United States’ high consumption, high welfare, low cost, low prices, and low inflation. This was a huge contribution to the United States, but it has been condemned, sanctioned, Being asked for the benefits of the real thing, this is not only the story of the world, but also the story of the "farmers and snakes" of the new era, which will also damage the great interests that the United States is and continues to receive and the welfare of the American people.

Many economists point out that there is a lot of economic common sense behind this judgment and logic. Steven Roach, a professor at Yale University and author of "Unbalanced Dependence on Sino-US Trade," sharply pointed out that the main reason for the trade deficit is that Americans have long spent the money of tomorrow to buy today's things, the debt consumption of American families. It forms the basis of the entire national trade deficit. Of course, politicians do not want to criticize the intemperance and squandering of their national voters. It is much easier to find a foreign scapegoat.

According to figures from the World Bank and the Federal Reserve, US household consumption expenditure in 1970 was $666.6 billion, and by 2017 this figure had surged to $1.37 billion. Although the US population accounts for only 4.4% of the world's population, it consumes 22% of the world's goods. On the one hand, more and more money is spent, and on the other hand, there is less and less money. In 1970, American household deposits accounted for 13% of GDP, and by 2017, only 2.6% of districts. The trend of the US trade surplus ended in 1970. Since then, the United States has almost never had a surplus, and the deficit has risen year by year until 2017, reaching $568 billion.

In addition, some professionals in the United States also pointed out that the US government has also adopted multiple trade law clauses at the same time, especially when using the 301 clause, which is not requested by the industry, but the decision of the Trump administration. These are unprecedented. For China, Trump is abusing trade laws.

American lawyer Mark Leonard: I think Trump is abusing trade law, and the United States should use a more prudent approach to trade friction with China. China will respond to Trump’s latest increase in the total amount of tariffs imposed. Unfortunately, Trump’s opponent this time will not compromise because of his threat.

Liang Ming, director of the Institute of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce: Trump has a complex of trade deficits, and he values ​​the trade deficit very much. He wants to further reduce the US trade deficit by imposing tariffs on Chinese exports.

Abacus 4: Attracting manufacturing returns to the US

CCTV Finance "economic information network" column video

From the beginning of the campaign, Trump promised American voters who thought that "manufacturing jobs were taken away by foreigners" would use trade to balance trade and regain manufacturing for Americans. After former US President Barack Obama formulated a "re-industrialization" development strategy, the Trump administration is now more aggressively adopting trade protection, tax cuts, etc. to attract US manufacturing returns and bring overseas assets back to US investment. However, the analysis believes that the reason for the real outflow of US manufacturing is not caused by China or other countries, but because of its high labor costs.

Dennis Gokzion, a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business: In the past, manufacturing accounted for 25% to 30% of the US economy in the US, but now it's only 8% to 9%. Therefore, nowadays, the manufacturing industry in the United States accounts for a small proportion. Because the high-cost labor force in the United States and the wages of workers are too high, most commodities cannot achieve low-cost production in the United States.

Industry insiders said that if the United States does not change the competitiveness of its own labor force, it will be extremely difficult to relocate enterprises.

Rebecca Lindland, senior analyst with Kelly Blue Book, a US automotive electronics consultancy, is too expensive to relocate the manufacturing plant. Our research shows that this requires hundreds of millions of dollars in investment. So the damage that this brings to the company is much greater than the benefits of trade protectionism.

CCTV Financial Reviewer Liu Ge: Two days ago, we saw the White House trade adviser Navarro said that China has joined the World Trade Organization since 2001. In the past 10 years, GDP has increased from 1 trillion to 120,000. In the meantime, 60,000 factories in the US manufacturing industry disappeared, and the jobs of 5 million manufacturing industries disappeared. He equated these two things. He said to whom to listen, that is to say to the "rust belt" (note: "rust belt" refers to those industrial areas that have experienced a glory and fell into a downturn, in the United States mainly refers to the central and western regions. Old industrial areas, usually including Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.) These voters listen. This is particularly straightforward. These local voters also believe this because they have actually started from the rise of Japanese manufacturing. In these decades, they are experiencing the process of decreasing jobs, so they believe this. A set of logic.

CCTV Finance "CCTV Finance Review" column video

Abacus 5: Containing China's peaceful rise

At 0:50 on March 23, US President Trump officially signed a trade memorandum on China at the White House. Trump announced that it will be possible to impose tariffs on US$50 billion of goods imported from China and restrict Chinese companies from investing in the United States.

From the perspective of the US product line that imposes tariffs on China, there are medical equipment, high-speed rail equipment, biomedicine, new materials, agricultural machinery and equipment, industrial robots, information technology, new energy vehicles and aviation equipment, all of which belong to "Made in China 2025". "The scope of the industry." Some analysts said that the White House's goal is to undermine the "Made in China 2025" program.

Forty years of reform and opening up, China's economy has grown by leaps and bounds, and it has become the world's second largest economy. The world's voice is significantly enhanced, and the United States will inevitably take all measures to contain China. With the rise of China's high-end manufacturing, China's export trade will inevitably increase. The Chinese economy is profoundly affecting the economic life of Americans. Chinese culture is imperceptibly affecting the cultural life of Americans. Americans regard China's export trade as economic aggression. It is not surprising.

Liang Ming, director of the Institute of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said: The United States has a very crucial factor in stimulating trade frictions against China. It wants to curb the rise of China. It can also be seen very clearly from this list. It is to further curb the pace of China's rise by cracking down on "Made in China 2025." Because the United States feels that China's rise is too fast. If it is a trade war, the future will not be as good as it is now, so it is based on such considerations that he has provoked trade disputes at this time.

CCTV's financial channel series observes that "five-question Sino-US trade relations" is still going on: Is it true that Chinese people have robbed Americans of their jobs? America, do you know how China will fight back? Related content will be broadcast soon, so stay tuned!

Source: CCTV Finance (ID: cctvyscj)

(Editor: Cui Chen HX015)

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