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It is understood that the production and sales situation of textile enterprises in November-December 2016 has improved significantly compared with the previous months. The yarn prices have risen, and cotton enterprises and traders actively stock up and replenish raw material stocks. There is still more than a month to the Spring Festival, and the spinning, grey cloth and Clothing markets seem to usher in a round of “Xiaoyangchunâ€. However, the facts are somewhat different, at least not as optimistic as the upstream raw material manufacturers expected. The yarn mills realized the “de-stocking†and cotton yarn prices up by 500-1000 yuan/ton in advance, more passive and helpless, for the entire downstream cotton. In terms of consumption, orders and exports, there is little hope of trying to push the price of downstream grey fabrics, fabrics and clothing through the upstream.
First, the profit situation of the spinning mills is getting warmer? Since the end of November, cotton yarn prices have been increased by 500-1000 yuan per ton, but the yarn mills are hard to say. According to the survey, from October to mid-November, most of the cotton textile mills in the mainland were supplied with reserve cotton, with a small amount of imported cotton and Xinjiang cotton in 2016/17. The cotton price was concentrated at 14500-15500 yuan. /Ton. As we all know, the yarn factory orders are generally at least 30 days to 45 days in advance, so the price of cotton referenced by weaving factories, garment factories and trading companies is the price of cotton in September and October, but domestic cotton prices are “oscillated†after October. "Return", so the more expensive the yarn mill is, the more expensive it may not be. In addition, the real new cotton and Chenmian handover period is around mid-October. The 2016/17 Xinjiang cotton “Double 28†inland warehouse is always quoted at 16,000 yuan/ton, and the difference with reserve cotton reaches 500-1000 yuan/ Tons, cotton textile mills have to produce and order only the “price increaseâ€. The increase in cotton is equal to or even higher than that of cotton yarn. What is the profit of the mill?
Second, in November and December , cotton yarn production and sales are booming? First of all, considering that the price difference between new cotton and Chenmian in November is relatively large, the procurement of raw materials for large and medium-sized cotton textile mills is “sold with the useâ€, and the yarn inventory is kept at a low level according to the single production; while the small spinning mill consumes the lowest. After the price reserve cotton, the production was quickly reduced and production stopped. Some of the yarn mills with orders were mainly purchasing cotton for purchase of real estate cotton and traders. Secondly, considering the high price of new cotton, they worried about the price increase of the yarn mill, and the downstream weaving factory The middlemen and other companies urged the cotton mills to deliver goods according to the contract or even in advance; again, some trading companies rushed to work before the Spring Festival in order to recover the purchase price. In addition, near the Spring Festival, cotton textile fabric factories have increased the intensity of “destockingâ€, and the phenomenon of stockpiling has occurred from time to time. It is not the real demand that has caused the market to pick up;
Third, cotton yarn and other downstream products have high resistance to price increases. First, the national environmental protection department has increased pollution control. The dyeing factories in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Hebei, etc. have been discontinued and reduced production. In addition, dyes fees have increased in November and December, and some varieties and manufacturers' grey cloths have risen by 1 yuan/meter. Above, the days of weaving factories and trading companies are very difficult. The cloth factory can only reverse the price of yarns. Second, the depreciation of the yuan is good for textile and garment exports, but developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan and Brazil, Argentina, India, etc. There are more and more investigations on anti-dumping by China in developing countries, and foreign trade orders are not easy to pick up; third, cotton yarns in India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia and other places are insane. At present, the price difference between cotton yarn at home and abroad is 700-1000 yuan/ton, especially the price of cotton in India is falling. The price of imported yarn and domestic yarn has a tendency to widen. The pricing power of cotton yarn of C32S and below has been lost.
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