International Early Shuttle: Today's Focus on China's First Quarter GDP

Phoenix International Early Shuttle

On Friday (April 14), the US CPI monthly rate fell by 0.3% in March, the first decline in 13 months; the US retail sales rate in March fell by 0.2%, the second consecutive month of decline, Implying that its economic growth in the first quarter may suddenly slow down, the US inflation and retail data in March is disappointing, which seems to pose a hindrance to the Fed's plan to gradually raise interest rates three times this year.

On Monday, due to the Easter holiday, many markets in Europe and the United States were closed, the Brent crude oil contract of the British ICE Group was suspended, and the US CME's precious metals, US crude oil and foreign exchange contract transactions were closed all day. Australia, Europe, multiple countries stock market closed, Hong Kong, China does not provide Hong Kong stocks services

Today, we will focus on China's first-quarter GDP data, the annual rate of industrial added value of China's above-scale industries in March, the annual rate of China's urban fixed assets investment in January-March, and the annual average retail sales of social consumer goods in China in March.

Market context

stock market

Stoxx50 index trend

On April 16 (Saturday), Beijing time, the European stock market, the Stoxx50 index closed down 0.58% to 3,484.26 points. Due to the influence of Good Friday, many European stock markets were closed for one day.

In the US stock market, US stocks were closed for one day due to Good Friday.

Crude oil, gold closed

Crude oil, gold, due to the Good Friday, the US and the two oil, international gold are closed.

The yuan has risen slightly

Foreign exchange was closed for the Good Friday and the foreign exchange market was closed overnight. Onshore, the RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.8855 yuan at 23:30 Beijing time, up 18 points from yesterday's night trading; the whole day's trading volume shrank by 2.558 billion US dollars to 23.121 billion US dollars. Offshore RMB against the US dollar rose 28 points or 0.04% in late New York, and 6.8820 yuan at 04:59 Beijing time.

Financial news

[Turkish constitutional referendum succeeded in the US dollar against the Turkish Lira short-term giant earthquake] On Sunday (April 16), Turkey held a constitutional referendum on giving new power to its President Erdogan, according to the state-owned Anadolu News Agency (AA). According to reports, the Turks have approved the most radical constitutional amendments since the establishment of the Republic 93 years ago, with 98% of the votes already counted.

Turkish President Recep Pulu Iplu Erdogan announced that he won the constitutional referendum that would expand his power, while the opposition parties protested the referendum. Affected by the results of the referendum, the US dollar against the Turkish Lira short-term giant earthquake, after the big rise, immediately dive, erase all previous gains.

[US CPI monthly rate fell for the first time in 13 months, because mobile phone service fees were "selling tears"] The US Department of Labor released data on Friday (April 14) showed that the US CPI monthly rate decreased by 0.3% in March. For the first time in 13 months, the decline in the cost of gasoline and mobile phone services offset the impact of rising rents and food prices.

[US retail sales have been going downhill for two consecutive months, and the GDP in the first quarter has slowed down? The US Department of Commerce announced on March 14 that the monthly retail sales rate in March fell 0.2%, the second consecutive month of decline, dragged down by the slowdown in auto demand, suggesting that its economic growth in the first quarter will suddenly slow down. The Atlanta Fed expects US GDP growth to be 0.6% in the first quarter, which will be the worst performance in three years.

[Saudi Ami CEO: The crude oil market is approaching the balance between supply and demand] Although the market is short-term to the excess of crude oil, the supply scale required in the next few years has lagged behind; the future market will be more stable, but the fluctuations may continue before the rebalancing stabilizes; US crude oil production There will be downward pressure on the market, but the future direction of the market is still up; the company's IPO is in the process of preparation, and the progress is very smooth; the Asian market is growing rapidly, and 60-70% of the company's crude oil exports are currently shipped to Asia; the company is also paying attention to investing in China and the United States. Opportunities for downstream industries.

[Mitsubishi: Oral intervention has temporarily pressured the US dollar, but it is unlikely to continue to reverse the trend of the US dollar] Mitsubishi UFJ Bank said that the US dollar has been further weakened by the verbal intervention of US President Trump, and Trump once again expressed concern about the US dollar. Too strong. This is in line with our view that our dollar is overvalued based on our long-term valuation model and helps to curb the room for further upside. However, verbal intervention itself is unlikely to spur a sustainable dollar reversal unless the underlying drivers change. As seen in the past six years, the dovish tendency of Fed Chair Yellen has not been able to prevent the dollar from sharpening.

[Yonhap News Agency: Han Daxuan timetable announced, canvassing war started on April 17] South Korea Central Electoral Management Commission announced on April 14th, April 15-16, the 19th presidential election candidate registration, candidates can be 4 From July 17 to May 8, canvassing activities will be held, and May 9 will be the election day.

[Goldman Sachs: Commodity investment still needs patience] Goldman Sachs research team still believes that commodity investors need to maintain greater patience, the currency re-expansion effect really reflects the market still needs time; international crude oil prices have rebounded to At the beginning of March, the price of agricultural products fell due to seasonal factors, and the overall price of bulk commodities has recovered.

[Reporter: The Bank of Japan is expected to slightly increase its economic assessment at the April interest rate meeting] The Bank of Japan is expected to slightly increase its economic assessment at the April interest rate meeting. The Bank of Japan is expected to be more optimistic about exports and output than in March. . A source said that exports and output are accumulating momentum, and a series of positive data recently raised the chances of the Bank of Japan raising its economic forecast; the Bank of Japan will emphasize its determination to maintain a large-scale monetary stimulus, relying on an export-oriented economy. The recovery has not boosted private consumption and inflation.

[BWF's "Eagle Wind" does not change, warning of rising interest rates and the risk of "hard Brexit " in the UK] On Thursday (April 13), Bank of Germany board member Dom Brett said in an interview with CNBC that financial institutions should start preparations Responding to a market environment in which interest rates are rising; the UK's hard-off Breeding seems to be on the verge of exploding, but there are no other signs of any current. Therefore, this needs to be taken seriously, because it will be the foundation of everything that happens in the future.

Today's attention

10:00 China's total retail sales of consumer goods in March

10:00 China's total retail sales of consumer goods from January to March

10:00 China's urban fixed assets investment from January to March

10:00 China's industrial added value above designated size in March

10:00 China's industrial added value above designated size from January to March

10:00 China's first quarter GDP year on year

10:00 China's first quarter GDP ratio

10:00 China's first to first quarter GDP year on year

10:00 The National New Office held a press conference. The spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics Mao Shengyong introduced the operation of the national economy in the first quarter of 2017 and answered questions from reporters.

14:15 Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda delivered a speech at the annual meeting of the Trust Association.

20:30 US April New York Fed Manufacturing Index

22:00 US April NAHB Real Estate Market Index

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