According to cotton yarn traders in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shandong, the prices of customs clearance yarn, spot and far-month shipping dates in Vietnam, India, Pakistan, etc. have been held steady since the beginning of July. Yarns, exporters, domestic The willingness of businessmen to adjust prices is not strong, but the difficulty of signing and shipping increases, and some traders are not even opening up for a week. Imports of JC21-32S India and Vietnam yarns have cooled down significantly. C8-16S Pakistan Siro spinning, which had relatively active inquiry and delivery of goods due to low bonded inventory in the earlier period, also dived in succession in the past two months.
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A certain Qingdao trader stated that although the ICE cotton fell sharply since early June, the prices of FOB, CNF, and CIF cotton in US/Australia, Australian cotton, West African cotton, and Ukrainian cotton in 2017/18 were fully retraced, and the spread of cotton inside and outside the country widened. About 1,500 yuan/ton, but due to the lack of cotton import quotas within 1% tariffs, the benefits of foreign cotton slumps have nothing to do with the small and medium-sized textile enterprises and cotton traders, so some investment institutions and cotton-related enterprises believe that the import of cotton is blocked. However, import of cotton yarn that is not subject to import quotas will certainly become a breakthrough for the Chinese textile mills, garment factories, and foreign trade companies. The trend of cotton yarn substitution for cotton imports has formed, and companies entering or planning to enter the imported cotton yarn will continue to increase.
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The reasons for the weakness of the imported cotton yarn and the firm price are summarized as follows: 1. Although the prices of ICE cotton and American cotton have fallen sharply since late June, both the Indian cotton and Pakistan cotton prices are quoted regardless of the ex-factory prices of the cotton enterprises or the main ports in the Far East. High (Pakistan's domestic cotton prices have even risen against the trend), India, Pakistan and other countries have not reduced the yarn price space; in addition, the Indian GTS pushed the mills to feel the greater cost pressure, and the yarn mills and exporters jointly protested. For example, on July 11 and 12, China's main port C/A SM 1-1/8", SM 1-5/32" Australian Cotton CNF is quoted at 82.50-82.70 cents/lb, 85-85.20 cents/lb, but -6 1-5/32" quotes are as high as 85.50 cents/lb, and EMOT SM 1-1/8" quotes are more than 6 cents/lb.
Second, the price adjustment of cotton yarn has a long delay. In the late June, regardless of Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey or India, the contract period of US cotton and Australian cotton used for spinning is mainly from March to May, and the price of ICE cotton main contract panel is concentrated at 72-76 cents/lb. Most of the A/A SM contract prices are between 87 and 91 cents per pound. The cost support yarn mills have to be very pricey. Third, the recent weakness of the US dollar index, the strong exchange rate between the Indian rupee, the Vietnamese dong, and the Pakistan rupee against the US dollar led to the import of yarn. Quotes are difficult to adjust downwards. The US dollar index hit a new nine-month low of 95.47 on June 30, followed by a bottoming market. It is worth noting that with the Fed’s further tightening policy gradually becoming clear, and the Trump New Deal measures will also come to a close, the US dollar will return to strength in the second half of this year.
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From the survey, Qingdao, Shanghai, and Guangzhou ports have clearance prices for C21S and 32S Vietnam yarns of approximately 21,100-21,300 yuan per ton and 22,800-23,000 yuan per ton (brand yarns, not included); and C21S-32S Indian yarn quotation Higher than the Vietnamese yarn 200-300 yuan / ton, JC21S, 32S is higher than the Vietnamese yarn 500-700 yuan / ton. Weavers and traders in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong reported that although the difference between cotton yarns from both inside and outside, C32S and 40S have fallen to 300-500 yuan/ton, which is much larger than the difference between 1,200 and 1,500 yuan/ton in April and May. However, the following three factors constrain the purchase of imported yarn: First, the arrival of textiles and garments in the off-season, the decline in orders for C32S and lower yarns is more obvious; secondly, due to the supply of cotton from the US cotton, Indian cotton and other regions to the latter stage, the cotton grade , Quality decline, unstable yarn quality, delivery is not timely; again, from the terminal to the upstream, the spread of cash flow tightening, monetary policy tightening more and more prominent.
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